Home > Uncategorized > Thank God The Polling Ends And The Voters Speak For Better Or Worse

Thank God The Polling Ends And The Voters Speak For Better Or Worse

Oh, what fools we are predicting midterm election races. I honestly don’t know how much valid methodology goes into these polling results. I do know you can ask questions slanted for particular responses and prove what your preconceived notions are statistically.

I am not a numbers guy nor a statistical freak. I am a political observer and take the polls for what they are — a broad trend of the public mood at a very precise point in time.

As a resource tool, I randomly selected The Daily Beast — Tina Brown’s journal of as much hot air as any — for a capsule glance of Tuesday’s elections which I don’t think will be the end of the world as we know it as some might suggest.

What caught my attention was the Beast’s Election Oracle which is so off the wall I am convinced it is an accommodation of someone’s wishful thinking.

With that in mind, let’s look at some interesting races what the polling data shows followed by my observations which are based on not really giving a damn who wins but what they may mean when they step into the corridors of Congress.

Nevada. The polling aggregate consensus shows Majority Leader Harry Reid at 50%, tied with Republican Tea Party candidate Sharron Angle. The Beast has Angle by 60% and leads Reid in these categories by 61% for most on-line discussion, 68% for positive buzz, 54% on immigration, 53% on jobs, 57% on health care and 52% on war.

Oh, come now, Nevada voters cannot be that dumb. I think the Oracle is polling the choir. Angle is a disaster until she is cured of foot in mouth disease. Beyond that I simply disagree with her positions which I don’t think she has thought out clearly. In the Senate she will be the gift that keeps on giving for her critics.

California. The aggregate consensus has Democrat Jerry Brown leading Republican Meg Whitman by 52% for governor. The Beast has Brown leading by 60% but close on the power issues except the deficit which has Brown leading by a whopping 71%.

I doubt Whitman has tanked that much. California is a blue state but anyone who thinks Brown has a 71% advantage fixing the deficit (I presume California’s) is smoking that funny stuff that Proposition 19 in that state is trying to legalize. My prediction: Brown will win, another proposition lowering the state budget approval to a simple majority vote will win, and a year from now Brown will face a recall election.

Alaska. The aggregate has Republican nominee Joe Miller at 37% and Republican write-in Independent Lisa Murkowski at 36% with what’s his name the Democrat toast. The Beast’s Oracle has Miller by 70%. The buzz and power figures all have Murkowski leading by insignificant, meaningless margins.

Sorry, but polling in Alaska is as reliable as shooting moose from a small aircraft blindfolded. May I suggest when Miller goes to Washington, his first best buddy should be Scott Brown of Massachusetts to redirect his focus on governing and bag some of the crappy ideas he has said on the campaign trail or he, too, will be toast.

Delaware. The Daily Beast is not big on witchcraft. It has Democrat Chris Coons by 90% while the aggregate consensus shows his lead over Republican Tea Party Christine O’Donnell by 60%.

Coons, although dull even by Harry Reid standards, may be one of the few grownups elected to the Senate this session.

Arkansas. Outside of this state, no one seems to care. Democratic incumbent Sen. Blanche is trailing Republican John Boozman at 42% in the aggregate polls and only mustering 20% favor from the Daily Beast. What is striking is that in the issues polling, it’s Lincoln by off-the-chart margins ranging in the 80+ factors. What gives?

I think moderates like Lincoln will be missed. She was good for her state but the progressive wing of the party killed her.

Pennsylvania. I think this is the most competitive senate races of all. The aggregate consensus has conservative Republican Pat Toomey leading by 51% and the Beast has Democrat Joe Sestak down at 40%.

Say it ain’t so, Joe. I will be crucified by my more progressive friends, but I don’t consider Toomey and Florida’s Marco Rubio crackpots wanting to bring government to a halt with gridlock. I think they will be closer to the Scott Brown camp who seems to exert a modicum of responsibility on the issues. So far.

Kentucky. Republican Tea Party Senate candidate Rand Paul leads in the aggregate consensus by 52% while the Oracle puts Democratic challenger Jack Conway with only a 20% chance.

The problem I have with Rand as senator is that he is not as smart as his father and unlike his father, his votes in the upper chamber will count, especially if he gets cantankerous like his predecessor Jim Bunning on “holds” and joining the minority filibuster crowd.

New York. Republican primary voters deserve what they get for governor which will not be Carl Paladino. And, to think I thought California lead the nation in kooks.

Forget the polls. Let the voters have the last word. My gut feeling (and it’s rather large, I say sheepishly) is that the Republicans take a majority in the House and if were not for some airheads from the Tea Party could have won the Senate.

This does not bode well for President Obama winning a second term unless he steps down from Mt. Olympus and pulls a Bill Clinton with that triangulation trick I think is what Dick Morris called it.

My biggest fear: Two more years of legislative gridlock and a whole lot of House oversight inquiries designed to embarrass the Obama administration to the delight of a select few of ultra conservative zealots.

Good theater. Bad governance.

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